Sulian Thual

Sulian Thual



Tropical Variability, Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics, Stochastic Dynamical and Statistical Models, Fluids and Geophysical Flows, Multiscale problems, Data Assimilation


学士学位(2009),Fluid Mechanics,ENSEEIHT, Toulouse, France

硕士学位(2009年),Ocean-Atmosphere and Continental Surfaces,Météo-France, Toulouse, France

博士学位(2012年),Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate,LEGOS-OMP, Toulouse, France


2013年 - 2018年 Postdoctoral Research Associate,Department of Mathematics and Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science,Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences,New York University

2018年 - 至今 青年研究员,复旦大学


Journal of Climate, Geophysical Research Letter, Nature Scientific Reports,

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology等期刊审稿人


  1. Thual, S., Majda, A.J. and Chen, N., 2018: A Tropical Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO, El Niño and Dynamic Walker Circulation: A Simplified GCM. J. Climate, accepted

  2. Morel, Y., Thual, S., Delcroix, T. and Hall, N., 2018: A theoretical model to analyze the Central to Eastern Pacific El Nino continuum, Ocean Modelling, link

  3. Thual, S., A. J. Majda, and N. Chen, 2018: Statistical occurrence and mechanisms of the 2014–2016 delayed super El Niño captured by a simple dynamical model, Clim. Dyn.,  doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4265-5,  link

  4. N. Chen, A. J. Majda, and S. Thual, 2017: Observations and Mechanisms of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity, J. Climate, 31, 449–471,,  link

  5. S. Thual, A. J. Majda, and N.Chen, 2017: Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity,  J.Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0174.1, link

  6. Thual, S., A. J. Majda, N. Chen and S. N. Stechmann, 2016: A Simple Stochastic Model for El Niño with Westerly Wind Bursts, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 10245-10250, doi:10.1073/pnas.1612002113, link.

  7. Stachnik, J. P., D. E. Waliser, A. J. Majda, S. N. Stechmann, and S. Thual, 2015: Evaluating MJO initiation and decay in the skeleton model using an RMM-like index. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 486-508, doi:10.1002/2015JD023916, link

  8. Thual, S., and A. J. Majda, 2015: A suite of skeleton models for the MJO with refined vertical structure, Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting, 1, 70-95, doi: 10.1515/mcwf-2015-0004, link

  9. Thual, S., and A. J. Majda, 2015: A skeleton model for the MJO with refined vertical structure, Clim. Dyn, DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2731-x, linktalk

  10. Thual, S., N. Ayoub, and B. Dewitte, 2015: Impact of Sea Level Assimilation on ENSO Initialization and Prediction: the Role of the Sea Level Zonal Tilt and Zonal Mean, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 1895-1906, link

  11. Thual, S., A. J. Majda, and S. N. Stechmann, 2014: Asymmetric Intraseasonal events in the stochastic skeleton MJO model with seasonal cycle, Clim. Dyn, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2256-8, link

  12. Thual, S., A. J. Majda, and S. N. Stechmann, 2014: A Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 697-715. linktalk

  13. Thual, S., B. Dewitte, N. Ayoub, and O. Thual, 2013: An Asymptotic Expansion for the Recharge-Discharge Model of ENSO, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 1407–1416. link

  14. Thual, S., B. Dewitte, S.-I. An, S. Illig, and N. Ayoub, 2013: Influence of Recent Stratification Changes on ENSO stability in a Conceptual Model of the Equatorial Pacific, J. Climate, 26, 4790–4802. link

  15. Thual, S., O. Thual, and B. Dewitte, 2012: Absolute or Convective instability in the equatorial Pacific and implications for ENSO, Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc, 138: 000–000. DOI:10.1002/qj.1988. link

  16. Dewitte, B., S.-W. Yeh, and S. Thual, 2012: Reinterpreting the thermocline feedback in the western-central equatorial Pacific and its relationship with the ENSO modulation, Clim. Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1504-z. link

  17. Thual S., B. Dewitte, S.-I. An and N. Ayoub, 2011: Sensitivity of ENSO to stratification in a recharge-discharge conceptual model. J. Climate, 4, 4331-4348. link

  18. Dewitte, B., J. Choi, S.-I. An, and S. Thual, 2011: Vertical structure variability and equatorial waves during central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Niños in a coupled general circulation model, Clim. Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1215-x. link

  19. Dewitte B., S. Thual, S.-W. Yeh, S.-I. An, B.-K. Moon and B. Giese, 2009: Low frequency variability of temperature in the vicinity of the equatorial thermocline in SODA: Role of equatorial wave dynamics and ENSO asymmetry. J. Climate, 22, 5783-5795. link


1. A Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO. In Mathematical Strategies for Climate and Long Range Weather Forecasting in a Hierarchy of Models, A. J. Majda and coauthors, Mathematics of Planet Earth Series (available in 2018).

2. Refined Vertical Structure in the Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO. In Mathematical Strategies for Climate and Long Range Weather Forecasting in a Hierarchy of Models, A. J. Majda and coauthors, Mathematics of Planet Earth Series (available in 2018).