题目：基于梁氏信息流的因果人工智能对次月降水的预报

报告摘要：

降水作为最受大众关注的对象，对其的预报一直是气象业务单位的工作难点。受季风气候影响，我国降水主要集中在夏季汛期。特别是近年来，极端降水事件越发严重，因此，对针对汛期的次月降水预报是十分重要的。根据1990-2021年的历史数据，我们利用一套由第一性原理严格推导的梁氏信息流因果理论和人工智能算法对我国汛期降水展开预报。总体来看，我们的模型能够成功预报各个月份的降水的正负异常，并且降水的空间分布与实际过程相似，不确定性最小。更进一步，包括20年7月的长江中下游的“超级暴力梅”、21年7月河南暴雨事件在内的极端降水事件均能够被正确地模型捕捉。特别对于去年长江中下游的罕见干旱，我们的模型也能够稳定地表征该地区局地且持续的降水负异常。相较于中国气象局（CMA）、欧洲中心（EC）和美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）的数值模式预报结果，我们模型的评分均有明显的提升。这显示了因果人工智能模型在次月降水预报中的巨大潜力。

个人简介：容逸能，复旦大学大气与海洋科学系博士后。2021年12月博士毕业于南京信息工程大学，研究兴趣：因果推断，人工智能，大气动力学，大气海洋数值模拟。

题目：A Novel Mechanism for Extreme El Niño Events: Interactions between Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific and Sea Surface Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

报告摘要：

This study presents a novel mechanism for the generation of extreme El Niño events by analyzing interactions between tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) in spring [March–May (MAM)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] and sea surface warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. It is suggested that anomalously strong TCs in the WNP in MAM and JJA are essential for the formation of extreme El Niño events. MAM TCs excite considerable westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and facilitate the generation of El Niño events in late spring. The sea surface temperature (SST) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific increases prominently during the following summer, which is due to the warm water carried by downwelling Kelvin waves induced by the anomalous westerlies in the western tropical Pacific associated with the WNP TCs, as well as the lessening cold water upwelling resulting from the deepening thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. The developing El Niño in turn contributes to the TC activities over the southeastern quadrant of the WNP in summer, characterized by a stronger intensity, higher frequency, and longer duration. The resulting JJA TC-induced westerlies could further enhance the eastern tropical Pacific warm SST anomalies, and thus an extreme El Niño event tends to appear in the following autumn and winter. These physical processes are verified by several sets of atmosphere–ocean coupled model experiments.

个人简介：童波，复旦大学大气与海洋科学系博士后。2022年博士毕业于中国科学院南海海洋研究所。2022年9月进入复旦大学从事博士后研究工作。研究兴趣：热带海气相互作用、印度洋偶极子、厄尔尼诺—南方涛动、热带气旋等。